Anthropic policy brief

AI Economic Impact Observatory

Policy teams can step through managed acceleration, labour cushioning, and safety guardrails without wrestling with dense dashboards.

Updated weekly
Managed accelerationReskilling readinessSafety guardrails
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Economic Impact Observatory

Glide around Anthropic's causal adaptive system to explore policy levers and macro signals.

Scenario Lens
GDP +1.4 pp, unemployment +0.3 pp
Channel adoption to sectors with transition credits and verified safeguards.
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PillarMacroPolicyDistributionRiskScenario
Macro Signals

Growth currents in motion

Quick-glance cards spotlight the indicators anchoring Anthropic's managed acceleration narrative.

2024-2028

GDP growth delta

+1.3 pp vs baseline

Productivity-led expansion with targeted safety nets.

2024-2030

Labor productivity lift

+18% output per worker

Automation and augmentation blend across knowledge sectors.

Policy horizon

Wage dispersion

-4% Gini shift

Assumes rapid reskilling and portable benefits scaling.

Policy Moves

Sequenced levers

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Policy timeline
Position levers across the 48-month window to see cadence and overlap.
Now12m24m36m48m
Transition Support Credits
0-24 months · Stabilises household demand; caps wage compression under 2 pp.

Income bridges and paid training for routine and mid-skill workers displaced by frontier models.

Sequenced with managed acceleration · guardrail ready
Distribution & Risk

Guardrails for diffusion

Track workforce distribution signals alongside live risk indicators.

Distribution signals
Where labour resilience needs the most support.
Mid-skill servicesHigh displacement risk

Automation depth 0.68, training uptake 42%

Prioritise wrap-around apprenticeships and wage insurance.

Advanced manufacturingSurge opportunity

AI-augmented output +26%, vacancies 1.4× labour supply

Match on-the-job learning credits with capital upgrades.

Public sector knowledge workVolatility watch

Quality variance ±15% absent eval guardrails

Stage deployments with AI assurance and procurement standards.

Risk watch
System stressors to keep within guardrails.
Inflation persistenceModerate

Energy and housing cost pass-through

Track supply bottlenecks that offset productivity gains.

Labour market churnElevated

Separations vs. placements in reskilling pathways

Trigger supplemental stipends if net placements drop below 0.8× separations.

Trust & safety signalsGuarded

Model incident rate / 1K deployments

Escalate audits above 0.7 incidents threshold per Anthropic policy brief.

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